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News, documents and analysis on violent extremismMonday, March 15, 2004
The Third Party Alternative?The incumbent government of Spain lost the general election on Sunday, setting a troubling new precedent in the war on terrorism.The election was thrown wide open last week after a devastating bomb attack killed nearly 200 people in Madrid. Before the attack, the socialist party opposition had been an underdog with no serious prospect for victory. Thursday's bombing changed all that. The government responded to the attack by blaming Basque separatists, a politically expedient conclusion that investigators steadfastly maintained despite numerous indicators that al Qaeda might have been involved. After a videotape released Saturday showed an alleged al Qaeda spokesman claiming responsibility for the blast, public skepticism toward the incumbent government swelled to massive proportions, as thousands of protestors flooded the capitol to accuse the government of withholding information. If the attack originated with Qaeda, it was perceived as being tied to Spain's support of the U.S. war on Iraq — support that the new prime minister withdrew as his first official act. In short, regardless of who is eventually found responsible for the Madrid bombs, al Qaeda has succeeded in creating a climate in which terrorism can effect regime change in targeted countries. This represents a radical change in al Qaeda's currency as an international power player. Indeed, if the attack proves to be an al Qaeda operation, its success dwarfs the September 11 attack for its political impact. Even more frightening, it raises the near certain threat of an "October Surprise" in the U.S. presidential elections. While a late-breaking attack has weighed on the minds of all concerned in the 2004 presidential election, the outcome in Spain virtually assures a full-court press against the U.S. by al Qaeda in October. Almost nothing that happens in the U.S. presidential election before October now matters (unless the campaigns now steer themselves exclusively toward how they plan to respond to an attack that month). In the space of the last week, Osama bin Laden has emeged as a shadow candidate in the U.S. political process, and his only possible role is that of the spoiler. Labels: Analysis, INTELWIRE-Exclusive Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.
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BOOKS"...smart, granular analysis..."ISIS: The State of TerrorMore on ISIS: The State of Terror "...a timely warning...""At a time when some politicians and pundits blur the line between Islam and terrorism, Berger, who knows this subject far better than the demagogues, sharply cautions against vilifying Muslim Americans. ... It is a timely warning from an expert who has not lost his perspective." -- New York Times More on Jihad Joe ABOUT![]() RECENTNewest posts!Bashir Release A Crushing Blow To Public View of T... Explosives Recipes Tie OKC to al Qaeda Manuals Links between Nichols and Ramzi Yousef timelines p... Executive Branch Moves To Undercut Padilla Suit Neo-Nazi May Save Terry Nichols From Death Chamber ANALYSIS: New MS Claims Elohim City Link to OKC Bo... Benevolence-Linked Palestinian Charged in Florida INTELWIRE Backgrounder: Jose Padilla EXCLUSIVESNew York Pipe Bomb Suspect Linked to Revolution Muslim The Utility of Lone Wolves Interview with Online Jihadist Abu Suleiman Al Nasser A Way Forward for CVE: The Five Ds How Terrorists Use The Internet: Just Like You PATCON: The FBI's Secret War on the Militia Movement Interview About Jihad With Controversial Cleric Bilal Philips Forgeries on the Jihadist Forums U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki State Department Secretly Met With Followers of Blind Sheikh State Department Put 'Political Pressure' On FBI To Deport Brother-in-Law Of Osama Bin Laden In 1995 FBI Records Reveal Details Of Nixon-Era Racial Profiling Program Targeting Arabs Gaza Flotilla Official Was Foreign Fighter in Bosnia War U.S. Had 'High Confidence' Of UBL Attack In June 2001 Behind the Handshake: The Rumsfeld-Saddam Meeting |