Analysis: Bin Laden 'Truce Offer' Likely To Trigger U.S. Attack

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com

al Jazeerah today aired a new audio message purportedly from Osama bin Laden, in which the al Qaeda leader threatened attacks on U.S. soil and offered to accept a truce in exchange for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. (external link)

The new message dramatically increases the threat level of terrorist attacks in the U.S. in the short- to medium-term future. According to the Middle East Media Research Institute (link), the new tape states

"[W]hat [Bush] refrained from saying -- and this is the essence of the poll results, which favor troop withdrawal -- is that it is better that we do not fight the Muslims on their soil, and they will not fight us on our soil.

We have no objection to accepting a long-term cease fire under fair conditions which we will uphold. We are a nation forbidden by Allah to betray and lie. Both sides will benefit from such a cease fire, from security and stability, and we will build Iraq and Afghanistan which have been destroyed in the war.

Using similar language in an April 2004 audio communique, bin Laden offered to negotiate a truce with European countries. In that message, bin Laden said:

I offer a truce to them (Europe) with a commitment to stop operations against any state which vows to stop attacking Muslims or interfere in their affairs, including (participating) in the American conspiracy against the wider Muslim world.

In a subsequent message from Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the July 2005 London bombings were explicitly cited as retribution for Europe's failure to seek terms with al Qaeda after bin Laden's previous message.

Contrary to some comments by the media and the Bush Administration today, the talk of truce does not reflect any self-diagnosis of weakness on the part of al Qaeda's leaders. Nor does it likely reflect a genuine desire for a cease-fire.

Al Qaeda has a keen grasp of the obvious. Bin Laden knows there is absolutely no chance the current leadership of the United States would agree to any sort of truce. The offer is a formality offered primarily for the benefit of Muslim audiences.

Islamic and Arab traditions encourage combatants to reasonably accomodate the cessation of hostilities at appropriate moments, and Islamic law can be read as explicitly requiring combatants to cease hostilities if the enemy ceases aggression -- the Quran states "if they cease, let there be no hostility except to those who practice oppression." (external link) bin Laden has long characterized Western governments as aggressors against Muslims.

By showing his willingness to consider alternatives, bin Laden seeks to shore up al Qaeda's moral standing within the Islamic community and provide a moral rationalization in support of the terrorist attack that will follow.

With all the above considerations coming to bear, the audio message from bin Laden is almost certainly a "green light" authorizing al Qaeda cells to begin preparing an attack or multiple attacks. Although the decentralized "al Qaeda movement" doesn't need a specific order to strike targets of opportunity, there are still "institutional al Qaeda" operatives dispersed around the world, waiting for word to proceed.

Depending on where previous preparations stand, an attack could be mounted or attempted within weeks or months, with the prospect of a truce is explicitly refused by the U.S. government.

The most likely window for an attempted attack probably spans the next three to 24 months, but an attempt could come sooner depending on the tenor of the U.S. response -- which is virtually assured to meet bin Laden's expectations.

Updated 1/20/2006

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Adam Gadahn (Azzam The American) Rises To Prominence In Terrorist Media

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com

American al Qaeda Adam Gadahn, aka Azzam the American, has joined the terrorist network's al-Sahab Media division, appearing on an al Qaeda Internet news broadcast and providing an English translation of Ayman al-Zawahiri's most recent video message.

NEW: Analysis of the 9/2 Gadahn Video

PREVIOUSLY: Gadahn Talks Of 'Demonic' Music

Gadahn, a 27-year-old California native, first became known when the FBI added his name to a list of suspects sought for questioning about possible terrorist links in May 2004 (Previous INTELWIRE report).

Since then, Gadahn -- in his role as Azzam -- was featured in two videotapes discussing al Qaeda's goals and philosophy. In a video released in late 2004, Gadahn threatened that a major attack on U.S. soil was being planned.

Since then, however, Gadahn has become a prominent member of the Sahab media production operation created by Osama bin Laden. Sahab is responsible for producing and disseminating al Qaeda video propaganda. Sahab has notably sophisticated production values and distributes material online as well as in conventional video formats.

Gadahn's first project for Sahab was providing English narration to "The 19 Martyrs," a video memorializing the September 11 attacks on America.

Since then, Gadahn has appeared as an interviewer on al Qaeda's Internet news broadcast Sawt al-Khilafa (Voice of the Caliphate), produced by the Global Islamic Media Front. Gadahn spoke only Arabic in the segment, titled "To Be Continued." Gadahn was the host of the segment.

Aisha Musa, Assistant Professor of Islamic Studies at Florida International University, who translated portions of the video at the request of INTELWIRE. Although Gadahn was not identified by his name or his alias during the video, Musa said the interviewer seemed to speak Arabic with an American accent and body language.

Gadahn also has an extremely distinctive speaking voice, which could be clearly heard on his most recent release, earlier this month, where he provided an English voiceover for al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri's latest message to the U.S. In the videotaped message, Zawahiri called on President Bush to admit defeat in Iraq.

The video was released under the name of Sahab media and The prominence of this video and the Voice of the Caliphate segment strongly suggest Gadahn's star is rising in terrorist video circles.

Gadahn may be partly responsible for a noticable trend toward producing materials aimed at a Western audience, including English subtitles and translations, and Western-style graphics. The "Voice of the Caliphate" segment appears modeled on the "Voice of America" format used by the U.S. military, according to Musa.

The audio quality of the translation was substantially less than in previous releases. This may be an artifact of the encoding of the video file, or it may reflect the production being created under less than ideal circumstances. The translated edition of communique showed a still picture of Zawahiri, interspersed with footage from Iraq and elsewhere. It also featured English subtitles.

Gadahn's aliases include Abu Suhayb Al-Amriki, Abu Suhayb, Yihya Majadin Adams, Adam Pearlman and Yayah. His current whereabouts are unknown.

FBI Notice Seeking Information on Gadahn

A substantial amount of footage relating to "Azzam" is available for licensing through INTELWIRE's video services. Click here for more information.

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Jose Padilla Transfered To Civilian Authorities

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com

The Associated Press reports that alleged al Qaeda "dirty bomber" Jose Padilla has been transfered to civilian custody in Miami.

Full Story

The Supreme Court ordred the transfer to proceed late last night, in response to a lower court's order delaying the transfer.

The lower court argued that the White House was making the transfer in order to avoid a Supreme Court hearing that could overturn an earlier precedent in the Padilla case, allowing the president to designate Padilla an "enemy combatant" in the War on Terror.

The Supreme Court can still opt to review the precedent, but ordered Padilla released to civilian authorities. He was previously detained in a military brig in North Carolina by the Defense Department.

INTELWIRE reports related to the Padilla case are linked below:



Left, FBI sketch of John Doe 2, OKC bombing suspect. Right, Jose Padilla driver's license photo circa 1996.

New Indictment Illuminates OKC Leads

External: Jose Padilla Indicted

External: Full Text of Padilla indictment

Backgrounder and Documents: Jose Padilla

DOJ: Padilla Accused Of Plot To Bomb Buildings

Reports: Padilla Linked to NYC Terror Cell

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