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News, documents and analysis on violent extremismFriday, June 8, 2007
Al Qaeda Declares Jihad On IndiaIt's not exactly a surprise that al Qaeda would want to declare jihad against India -- assuming the video announcement today checks out as authentic, and it very well may not. But even a forgery is doubtless a harbinger of things to come.Al Qaeda and its allies have been fighting a guerilla war in Kashmir, along the India-Pakistan border, for nearly two decades off and on. What's surprising is that al Qaeda took this long to make a bold, visible move. Al Qaeda has everything to gain by inciting India, because India (with some justification) sees al Qaeda as a Pakistani problem. Last year's Mumbai bombing was carried out by LeT, one of al Qaeda's fairly close affiliates in Pakistan. If al Qaeda stages and claims spectacular attacks in India, India may consider an attack on Pakistan -- al Qaeda's home base -- as retaliation and preemption (under the Bush doctrine). Since both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers, that creates a real risk of unthinkable carnage. Furthermore, any sort of shooting war between Pakistan and India would almost certainly destabilize the Musharraf regime, giving that nation's powerful Islamist factions an opportunity to seize control of the country and its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan is already one of the countries most at risk in the current political environment -- a coup or civil war could easily end with al Qaeda and Taliban sympathizers in charge. And any sort of substantial chaos in Pakistan exponentially increases the odds al Qaeda can contrive access to nuclear materials. Labels: Weblog Views expressed on INTELWIRE are those of the author alone.
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BOOKS"...smart, granular analysis..."ISIS: The State of TerrorMore on ISIS: The State of Terror "...a timely warning...""At a time when some politicians and pundits blur the line between Islam and terrorism, Berger, who knows this subject far better than the demagogues, sharply cautions against vilifying Muslim Americans. ... It is a timely warning from an expert who has not lost his perspective." -- New York Times More on Jihad Joe ABOUT![]() RECENTNewest posts!Infidel Bugs Spoil Al-Libbi's Eulogy of Dadullah New Yahya Al Libbi Video Coming Soon Changes Coming In The Intelligence Authorization A... No Entry Yahya Al-Libbi: A Leader Who Could Revitalize Al Q... J.M. Berger Discusses Khalifa on Al Jazeera Greening the Sahara More Bad News, But It's Good We're Talking About I... LA Times: Iraq Is Strengthening Al Qaeda Patterns of Global Terror 2006 EXCLUSIVESNew York Pipe Bomb Suspect Linked to Revolution Muslim The Utility of Lone Wolves Interview with Online Jihadist Abu Suleiman Al Nasser A Way Forward for CVE: The Five Ds How Terrorists Use The Internet: Just Like You PATCON: The FBI's Secret War on the Militia Movement Interview About Jihad With Controversial Cleric Bilal Philips Forgeries on the Jihadist Forums U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki State Department Secretly Met With Followers of Blind Sheikh State Department Put 'Political Pressure' On FBI To Deport Brother-in-Law Of Osama Bin Laden In 1995 FBI Records Reveal Details Of Nixon-Era Racial Profiling Program Targeting Arabs Gaza Flotilla Official Was Foreign Fighter in Bosnia War U.S. Had 'High Confidence' Of UBL Attack In June 2001 Behind the Handshake: The Rumsfeld-Saddam Meeting |