Two Iraqis Indicted In Kentucky For Supporting Al Qaeda In Iraq

A grand jury indicted two Iraqi nationals living in Bowling Green, Kentucky, for supporting Al Qaeda in Iraq, in a case unsealed today by the U.S. Attorney's office of Western Kentucky.

Waad Ramadan Alwan, 30, is an Iraqi citizen who successfully applied for and received refugee status to live in the United States, according to an affidavit. According to an affidavit, he was also allegedly a member of the Iraq insurgency since 2003 and took part in attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq.

Mohanad Shareef Hammadi, 23, is described as a former Iraqi insurgent. He was also in the U.S. under refugee status. Both men entered the United States in 2009.

Alwan recruited Hammadi in a scheme to provide machine guns, RPGs and Stinger missiles to Al Qaeda in Iraq. However, their supposed point of contact with the group was in reality an undercover FBI agent.

Alwan is described in the indictment as a designer of IEDs who also created instructional materials teaching others to build them. He was matched by his fingerprints to an unexploded IED found in Iraq in 2005, according to the U.S. Attorney's press release.

The FBI began investigating Awlan in September 2009, just five months after he entered the country. Under surveillance, Alwan boasted of being involved in IED and sniper attacks on U.S. troops, according to an affidavit.

Alwan told the FBI's source that he was wanted for being a "mujahid" in Iraq and so could not return.

Hammadi was recruited by Alwan to assist in the plot in early 2011. Alwan told an informant he had known Hammadi in Iraq. The men obtained weapons and explosives and helped prepare them for shipment to Iraq. The explosives and eventually two Stinger missiles handled by the men had been rendered inert by the FBI.

The men were arrested Wednesday.

For much more about the history of jihadist terrorism on U.S. soil, including the sole American citizen known to have traveled to join Al Qaeda in Iraq, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Indictment

Criminal Complaint, Alwan

Criminal Complaint, Hammadi

Labels: Al-Qaeda-In-Iraq, Mohanad-Shareef-Hammadi, Waad-Ramadan-Alwan

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Charting Bin Laden's Death Among Arabic-Speaking Hardcore Jihadis Online

Here's the third, and for now, final, installment of jihadist forum analysis, this time focusing on the Ansar Al-Mujahideen Arabic-language forum. I'm putting up some raw data for the moment, and hopefully I will have some time to compile a more sophisticated thought or two on the analysis over the next few weeks. I welcome any analysis from readers in the meantime, tweet at me to discuss. Keep in mind this is raw data that could use another set of eyes, so allow for probably about a 5 percent margin of error.

Previously:

Ansar English forum results

Hanein Arabic forum results

Ansar Al-Mujahideen Arabic is a full-on jihadist forum, unlike the Hanein forum I looked at the the last installment. More on this in a bit. For now here are the results for the first four weeks after the death of Osama bin Laden.

Predictably, Ansar users, consisting of hardcore jihadists ideologically aligned with Al Qaeda, were most concerned with the death of Osama bin Laden. There were 2104 threads created on Ansar during the sample period. Osama bin Laden was the main focus of 648 threads, with 231 devoted to Arab Spring developments, and four pertaining to Anwar Awlaki.

As far as the weak Awlaki number, I wouldn't read too much into this without more data. For instance, most references to Zawahiri were either in the context of bin Laden's death or a new media release, and Awlaki didn't have any media out in May except for Inspire, which was duly noted. I'd like to examine this more over time and on a more normal month.

The breakdown of Arab Spring countries looks like this:

The country totals are:

Algeria -- 6
Bahrain -- 3
Egypt -- 89
Jordan -- 17
Libya -- 12
Morocco -- 21
Multiple/general -- 21
Syria -- 29
Tunisia -- 13
Unclear reference -- 2
Yemen -- 10

As I found in the Hanein forum, Syria was the second-most referenced Arab Spring country, which makes me think we need to see some more reporting about jihadist interest/influence there than what the mainstream media has provided so far. As with Hanein, and not surprisingly, Egypt was the clear winner as the country most referenced. But again, the comparison the Palestinian-issues yields a surprising result.

There were 89 posts pertaining primarily to Egyptian political developments vs. only 84 posts about Palestinian issues, and many of the latter were largely content-free gestures attempting to tack bin Laden's death on to the Palestinian cause. The sample period included significant developments on Palestinian issues between majors speeches by Obama and Netanyahu as well as international movement toward recognizing a Palestinian state. So the fact that Egypt wins even among hardcore jihadists suggests to me that we might want to examine some of our precoceptions about the primacy of the Palestinian conflict in the hearts of jihadists. However, I caution that this is too preliminary and too small a sample to jump to any big conclusions.

Ansar also featured more generalized discussions about the Arab Spring than the more nationalistic Hanein forum, mainly because jihadists are having trouble crafting an ideological response to recent developments. But for the overall focus, Hanein (which used to have a much more jihadist orientation) shows that the Arab Spring may indeed prove to be a significant threat to the jihadist movement. Consider the following chart which excludes the "other" category:

Both Ansar and Hanein had roughly the same number of threads created during the sample period, 2104 versus 2315 respectively. So the strength of their conversations are pretty comparable. But the exodus of Hanein users in recent months from a primarily Salafist-jihadist orientation to more of what I guess you would call a militant-nationalist orientation is pretty striking.

More on all of this soon.

For more about how American jihadists use the Internet, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Anwar-Awlaki, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

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Charting Bin Laden's Death On An Arabic-Language, Jihad-Friendly Forum

Following up on my chart of topics from the English-speaking online jihadists for the first four weeks after bin Laden's death, I decided to examine one of the Arabic-language forums to see how the emphasis compared.

In the English-speaking forum I looked at, Ansar Al Mujahideen, interest in the death of Osama bin Laden dwarfed interest in the Arab Spring.

For comparison, I decided to look at the Hanein forum, which bills itself as "an independent network that seeks to Preach for Allah as well as for what is best to serve the Islamic nation." I picked Hanein in part because I follow it fairly regularly and in part for technical reasons related to how I'm mining the data.

Hanein vs. Ansar English is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Hanein was once a higher-tier jihadist forum that went through a shutdown and various problems before re-emerging in its present form.

Aaron Weisburd at Internet Haganah characterizes Hanein as suffering " from a certain amount of not-Islamicly-correct nationalism," and has recently stopped listing it as a jihadist forum. So it's an interesting barometer for folks who might as easily swing either toward an Islamist extremist orientation or toward a more secular political orientation.

The posts I examined were taken from its "news" subsection, whereas the Ansar posts were taken from all posts. Hanein is a much more complicated forum with more sections and subsections. Most of the impact of that difference falls under the "other" category but it does skew things somewhat toward the Arab Spring over the death of bin Laden.

I ran through this data myself, once, which is all the time I can afford to commit to this right now, so keep in mind that the data could most definitely use a second set of eyes. Figure a 2 to 5 percent margin of error because of that. With caveats in place, here's what I found in the four weeks following the death of Osama bin Laden.



There were 2315 total threads created during the four-week period, consisting of 750 mainly related to the Arab Spring, 340 mainly related to the death of Osama bin Laden, and just three related to Anwar Awlaki, whom I include as a point of comparison due to my own interest in American jihadists (cue obligatory book plug).

That's a sharp difference from the English-language Ansar forum results for the same period, where bin Laden handily trounced the Arab Spring as a topic of conversation.



Even allowing for the differences in forum structure noted above, I think this is significant. There are a number of possible reasons for the difference. Obviously, jihadists for whom English is a primary language will be living in the West more often than those for whom Arabic is a first language. So Hanein's users are geographically closer to the Middle East and its uprisings in addition to its aforementioned shift in character.

But it's worth noting that Ansar users are not only less interested in the Middle East but less interested in politics generally. Most of the "other" entries from Ansar are battlefield reports from jihadists in various locations. There isn't much conversation about world events, although it's not totally absent.

Since Hanein has a much bigger sample size (more than four times as many posts), it's worth looking at the breakdown of topics a little bit more. First, here's how the Arab Spring section breaks down:



Here are the totals, listed alphabetically:

1. Algeria -- 15
2. Bahrain -- 15
3. Egypt -- 276
4. Iraq -- 2
5. Jordan -- 7
6. Libya -- 115
7. Morocco -- 32
8. General (multiple countries) -- 37
9. Oman -- 2
10. Syria -- 174
11. Tunisia -- 15
12. Unclear reference -- 7
13. Yemen -- 50

I will admit to being surprised by these numbers. Most notably, I would have expected that Libya and Yemen would make a stronger showing than Syria. Yemen and the Gulf (excluding Iraq) are not generally well represented in the sample.

Here's a look at the breakdown of Arab Spring vs. Bin Laden vs. Palestine. Totals here are slightly off due to some posts having more than one coded topic.



Interesting here is the relative weakness of Palestinian issues. There were 269 posts on Palestine compared to 276 on Egypt and 340 on bin Laden. I can understand Bin Laden trumping Palestine given the uniqueness of that event, but Egypt's narrow win was noteworthy, especially given fairly major developments on the Palestinian issue relating to speeches by Obama and Netanyahu.

Several posts were about both Egypt and Palestine, regarding likely and actual changes in border security and political positions.

Otherwise, the posts on Egypt covered a pretty wide gamut of topics, including Mubarak schadenfreude, general uprising news, and (based on an eyeball estimate) a fairly significant number of posts regarding sectarian violence, particularly in Imbaba.

For more about how American jihadists use the Internet, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Arab-Spring, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

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Charting Bin Laden's Death Among English-Speaking Jihadis Online

It's been four weeks since the death of Osama bin Laden. I thought it might be interesting to take a look at activities on one of the more significant English language jihadist forums -- Ansar Al Mujahideen. Click here for stats from the Arabic Hanein forum.

See also:

Charting Bin Laden's Death Among Arabic-Speaking Hardcore Jihadis Online

Charting Bin Laden's Death On An Arabic-Language, Jihad-Friendly Forum

Over the last four weeks, there were 525 threads created on Ansar, of which 111 were primarily concerned with bin Laden and his death. By way of comparison, 27 threads dealt mainly with the Arab Spring and only two were devoted to Anwar Awlaki (this among English-speaking jihadis, his supposed core constituency).

The following breakdown by week shows the progression of the story. Ansar was down two days during the first week and one day during the second week, but even so you can see the spike. At its peak, the death of bin Laden took up 37.1 percent of the forum's threads.

Of the Arab Spring threads, Libya and Yemen were very well represented, with other fronts receiving only an occasional mention. The "other" category includes the usual press releases from various jihad fronts, announcements of media releases and news stories about jihad from mainstream media.

Roughly a third of the bin Laden threads were based on mainstream news sources. The spike in postings on the second week came with the official confirmation of bin Laden's death by Al Qaeda, and a series of condolence statements from various AQ affiliates.

The data set includes threads deleted by moderators and threads with duplicate content posted by different authors. Exact duplicate threads were deleted. I judged the content based primarily on the headlines but looked up individual threads when the headline was unclear.

On the Arab Spring category, I had to make judgment calls on a couple of threads dealing with fighting in Yemen. Threads primarily concerned with AQAP were omitted from the count (there were only a handful like this), but threads describing fighting without citing AQAP in the headline were counted as Arab Spring references.

Here's a look at the bin Laden thread titles, sorted by date:

Is our Shaikh Osama Bin Laden dead?

Sheikh Usama bin Laden reported shaheed (Insha'Allah) by the kuffar

May Allah increase you rank in Jannah o Sheikh Usamah!

CNN : Inside the Raid of Killing "Sheikh Usamah"

::: Video Statement ::: Commander Waliu al-Rahman H.A / Sheikh Osama Bin laden is alive and doing well!

Ex-CIA Official - Bin Laden Should Be Respected

Fake Picture circulating of the Body of Shaykh Usama (Fake!!!!!)

IEA: Statement by the Official Spokesman about What Obama Announced Regarding the Martyrdom of Shaykh Usama Bin Laden 5/3/2011

The moment of the raid in pictures

::: Video Statement ::: Commander Waliu al-Rahman H.A / Sheikh Osama Bin laden is alive and doing well!

{{{{{obama Killed}}}}}

Usama is Alive!!! Sheikh Husain b. Mahmoud

Pakistan Refuses To Hand Over Bin Laden's Shot Wife To US

Yemen's Qaeda vows to avenge bin Laden

::: New Artcile ::: [ Sheikh Osama Bin Laden between Jihad and Martydom for the sake of Allah ] "By the poor servant of Allah (ANSAR)"

Advice to Muslims on the Death of Osama bin Ladin by Sheikh Haitham al-Haddad

As-Sahab Media ::Presents:: Why do not grieve over your heart? "By Sheikh Khalid al-Hosainaan H.A"

Top Al shabaab official denies he was killed

Egypt Salafi Cleric Says Bin Laden Died A Martyr

Obama REFUSES to release photos of OBL

# The Victory of Allah is near # As-Sahab Media ::Presents:: Jihad of the Soul "By Sheikh Khalid al-Hosainaan H.A"

Al-Andalus Media: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: "Condolence and Congratulation for the Ummah on its Loss of Our Shaykh Usama bin Laden

Al-Fajr Media: The General Command of Al-Qaedah: A Statement Concerning the Defiant Battle, and the Martyrdom of Sheikh Usama bin Laden (may Allah have mercy on him)

Al-Qaida group in Iraq supports Zawahiri, vows revenge for bin Laden death

GIMF: The General Command of Al-Qaedah "You Live a Praised Life and You Died a Marty"- A Statement Concerning the Defiant Battle, & the Martyrdom of Usama bin Laden R.A.

Interview: Michael Scheuer, former CIA bin Laden tracker

Osama bin Laden “Bleeds” US Economy, Strategy Remains In Place

Pakistan PM: 'We Did Not Hide Bin Laden'

Pentagon releases new Osama bin Laden footage

The Cost of bin Laden: $3 Trillion Over 15 Years

Dar Al Murabiteen Publications- Farewell O Honourable Shiekh!

Demo + Janazah in London for Shaykh Usama after Jummah

Islamic State of Iraq / Statement on the Martyrdom of the Mujahid Shaykh Usama bin Laden ||05-09

Kavkaz , UnJust Media "Command of al-Qaeda confirms martyrdom of Sheikh Osama bin Laden"

Reaction to Martherdom(InshaAllah) of Shaykh Osama(rahimAllah) from Turkey!

Statement of the Leadership Council of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Regarding the Martyrdom of the Great Martyr Sheik Osama bin Laden

How Jihadis are reacting to bin Laden's death

I met Sheikh Osama Bin Laden

# Here We Renew The Covenant # A Collection of Video & Audio Statements "The

Legacy of Sheikh Usama bin Laden" (may Allah accept him)

Abdullah Azzam Brigades || Statement to the Ummah - Usama You are the Glory and the Splendor

Ansar al-Islam: Congratulating the Islamic nation on the occasion of the martyrdom of the Lion of Islam the Mujahid Abu Abdillah Usama bin Laden

Ansar al-Mujahideen Arabic Forum: Presents: Visual Excerpts from the Words of Shaykh al-Jihad {Osama bin Laden} may Allah accept him

In the Footsteps of Sheikh Osama Bin Laden

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan statement about the martyrdom of Sheik Osama bin Laden

Joint Statement from Shamukh al-Islam & Ansar al-Mujahideen Arabic Forum: The Rise of Our Imams, Verily We are Walking in Their Footsteps

Muslims VS Munafiq: Clashes between Muslims and Munafiq "Imam" in Kuwait regarding performing Salaat "al-Gha'ib"for Osama Bin Laden R.A (Images and video)

Somalia's al Shabaab vows to avenge bin Laden

Statement from Al-Fajr Center for Media || Condolences and Congratulations to the

Islamic Ummah on the Occasion of the Martyrdom of the Lion of Islam, Shaykh Usama

Statement from Al-Fajr Media Center: Condolence and Congratulations to the Ummah of Islam at the Event of the Martyrdom of the Lion of Islam, Sheikh Usama bin Laden

Statement from Minbar at-Tawḥid wa’l-Jihad: On the Martyrdom of Shaykh al-Mujahideen and Jihād, Sheikh Usama bin Laden (may Allah accept him in Eleeyeen)

Yemeni Al-Qaeda chief warns jihad will intensify

Bin Laden Sons Say U.S. Broke International Law

CNN: Reports about the escape of Hamza bin Osama bin Laden from the American raid on the Abbottabad

Flashpoint Partners: Exclusive Interview with TTP Spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan: Threatens Pakistan and US for UBL’s Death

I knew Bin Laden - Aljazeera program

Statement Issued by the Sons of Sheikh Usama bin Laden

Ansar al-Mujahideen Arabic Forum: Legacy of Sheikh Osama bin Laden may Allah accepted him (Video & Audio)

Missing: One 'Crown Prince Of Terror' (Hamza bin Laden)
Pictures from the Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen conference entitled: 'We are all Usama'

Somalia's Islamists vow to avenge bin Laden's death

The Islamic Emirate Of Afghanistan: The Martyrdom Of Sheikh Osama Will Not Benefit America

The Islamic Emirate Of Afghanistan: The Martyrdom Of Sheikh Osama Will Not Benefit America

Al Jazeera World: I knew bin Laden

Bin Laden's wife: 'I want to be martyred with you'

Eulogies and fury: Jihadists eager to avenge bin Laden's death

Noam Chomsky: My Reaction to Osama bin Laden’s Death

**TAKBIR!** |REVENGE| Twin bombs kill at least 80 FC apostates in Charsadda, Pakistan

Abu Mansour Al-Ameriki speech at the "We are all Osama" conference

AQAP: Crusader-USA Will Miss The Days When Shaykh Usamah (RH) Was Alive

How Did Shaykh Usamaah earn his martyrdom?

IEA: Martyrdom Of Shaykh Usamah Will Not Benefit Crusader-USA

Bin Laden death: Security fears for US Navy Seal team

English translation of "Interview of Shaykh Usamah bin Laden (Rahimahullah) with

Al-Jazeera reporter Tayseer Allouni on Shaban 5, 1422 A.H. (October 21st, 2001)"

Kuffar want to insult our Beloved Sheikh Osama (ra)

GIMF: Obituary and Congratulation to the Ummah of Islam for the Martyrdom of the Lion of Islam, Usama bin Laden

Sheikh Osama and Inspire Magazine

Pakistan Gov says Drone Strikes must stop, no enquiry for Bin Laden Raid

Get To Know Shaykh Usamah (RH) Through His Risalah

In the memory of beloved Sheikh OSAMA BIN LADEN

Obama's Grandmother Threatened by Al-Qaida

Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus: Emir Dokku Abu Usman (HA) talks about Sheikh Usama, the losses suffered by the mujahideen, and the Arab revolutions

Al-Qadisiyyah Media: Urdu Translation of the Statement Concerning the Defiant Battle, & the Martyrdom of Usama bin Laden R.A.

Chechnya: Amir Dokku Abu-Uthman Speaks On Shaykh Usamah Ibn Ladin (RH) & Casualties Of Mujahideen

Clarifying The Lame-Old-Claim Of Shaykh Usamah Ibn Ladin (RH) Being An 'Agent'

Youth Mujahideen Movement [General Command]: Message of condolence for the martyrdom of Imam Sheikh Usama bin Laden (May Allah Have Mercy On Him)

Youth Mujahideen Movement: Holding a Jihadist Conference entitled "We Are All Usama" in the Islamic province of Lower Shabelle (05/16/2011)

Al Qaeda after Bin Laden - Abdel Bari Atwan

Al Qaeda releases posthumous bin Laden audio recording

Munafiqeen Rejoice: Shaykh Abdul-Muhsin Al-'Abbaad on the Killing of Bin Laden 'al-Khaarijee'

Osama Bin Laden's Death: A Leader's Wish Fulfilled | Abdel Bari Atwan

Pakistani Newspaper: Saifal Adel made acting al-Qaeda chief

Pakistani Taliban warns of Retaliation for Sheikh Usama's Martyrdom
So-

Called Scholars view of Sheikh Usama Ibn Ladin (Rahimahullah)

Why bin Laden was radicalized - Abdel Bari Atwan

"Shaykh Bin Laden's Wives and Children are Our Kinsfolk and Honour; Every Muslim is Duty Bound to Defend their Honour" - Abdel Bari Atwan

As-Sahab Media: presents: The Last Speech of the Martyr of Islam - as we see him - [Shaykh Usama Bin Laden] "To The Muslim Ummah"

"Security and Intelligence" - by the Commander Saif al-Adel with an Explanation by Abdullah Bin Adam

Last public word of Shaykh Osamah bin Laden RA)

Jihad Media Center: Presents: [Transcript] ~ [Graphic Design] of the Speech by the Lion, Sheikh Usama bin Laden "To the Muslim Ummah"

O American... this is Osama // Penned by Sheikh Husain Bin Mahmoud (H.A)

Anger simmers in Pakistani army over bin Laden raid

GIMF: The English translation of As-Sahab's audio release - The Speech by the Martyr of Islam (As We Consider Him‪)‬ The Mujahid Sheikh Usama Bin Laden - May Allah Have

Professor Abdel-Bari Atwan, commenting on the martyrdom of Shaykh Usama Bin Laden [(ARABIC)]

Sheikh Uthaymeen regarding his meeting with Sheikh Usama Rahimahullah
Tehreek Taliban Pakistan: The Expedition of Sheikh Usama bin Laden R.A {Karachi}

From Usama bin Laden to his muslim ummah (bosnian)

A consolidated statement of between AMEF, AMAF and Shumukh on the killing of Sheikh Usama Bin Laden R.A.

Sudan: Statement On Sh.Usamah Ibn Laadin by Dr. Abdul Hayy Yousef

The Allegiance of Commander az-Zarqaawee (Rahimahullah) to the Shaykh of the Mujaahideen, Shaykh Osamah ibn Ladin (Rahimahullah)

Soon with the Permission of Allah(swt) from As-Sahab Media Foundation

do they hate osama ra?

For more about how American jihadists use the Internet, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Anwar-Awlaki, Jihadist-Forums, Osama-Bin-Laden

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Revolution Muslim's Younus Abdullah Muhammad Arrested In Morocco

Revolution Muslim's co-founder and primary spokesman Younus Abdullah Muhammad was arrested in Morocco early Friday, according to Islam Policy, the Web site successor to the original Revolution Muslim.

Muhammad, also known as Jesse Morton, was charged earlier this month with transmitting threats in relation to Revolution Muslim's 2010 threats against the creators of South Park for a two-part episode satirizing death threats over the depiction of the Prophet Mohammad.

Read the criminal complaint

According to the affidavit, Mohammed recruited Zachary Chesser to write for RevolutionMuslim.com in early 2010, after Chesser had littered the Internet with a variety of provocative postings in favor of terrorism and jihad against the West. Chesser was promoted to administrator on the site in April 2010.

After the initial posting, which was written by Chesser, both Mohammed and Chesser worked together to refine a written response in an effort to parse the language of the post and cast it as a "warning," rather than a "threat," which fooled no one.

Morocco does not have a standing extradition treaty with the U.S., so it will be interesting to see what went into this move, and the trial itself may shed significant light on how Revolution Muslim works and what links it may or may not have with overseas terrorist organizations.

Several members and associates of Revolution Muslim have already been arrested and convicted for various crimes relating to terrorism, but this is the first time a significant leader of the group has been prosecuted.

Revolution Muslim's other founder, Yousef Al Khattab, also known as Joseph Cohen, departed from the group in 2009 and has since criticized the group's endorsement of violence and expressed regret for his role in the group's activities. Al Khattab is currently living in New York City, according to postings on his personal blog.

The statement on Revolution Muslim read:

Early on Friday morning brother Younus was arrested by Moroccan authorities, his currently being held and is awaiting extradition to the United States. His arrest comes in the long line of Muslims who have been imprisoned for speaking out against the United States. It is part and parcel of the US war on Islam. It is a war, being waged on two interlink fronts.

One front is the military front, where the US uses its ‘hard power’ it dominate, and coerce the Muslim world into conforming to its interest. We see this taking place in many of our lands, from Iraq to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and many other places.

The other front is the ideological front where the US tries to change the beliefs and perceptions of Muslims, indeed to change Islam itself. To this end the US attempts to snuffle out voices of dissent, voices of truth. Whilst at the same time promoting those voices of compromise, who for whatever reason are willing to cooperate in the distortion of the truth of Islam. All this amounts to nothing more than a programme of intimidation, a systematic attempt to silence Muslim dissent, but we will not be silenced.

For much more about Revolution Muslim and its links to terrorism, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Labels: Revolution-Muslim, South-Park, Younus-Abdullah-Mohammed, Yousef-Al-Khattab, Zach-Chesser

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Jihad Joe Roundup: Events, Video, Pictures, Writing And More

J.M. Berger, left, takes questions at the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington Univeristy during an event launching his new book, "Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam." Frank Cilluffo, right, director of HSPI moderated the session.

I was honored to be a guest of the Homeland Security Policy Institute on Tuesday to discuss my new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go To War In The Name Of Islam, the first comprehensive look at the phenomenon of American jihadists.

Everyone was very kind, and many people were generous with their time and help throughout my D.C. visit. I also got to meet some people doing the work of the nation and the work of the media, and the sometimes-grind of trying to learn and teach about terrorism and extremism.

I'll have some reflections on various things discussed during the trip in the days to come, but for now I wanted to share a few multimedia items related to the book that might of interest.

First off, there's a video posted on HSPI's Web site featuring the 90-minute session. The first half hour is me talking, the last hour is a great question-and-answer session I really enjoyed. I want to particularly thank Frank Cilluffo, the head of HSPI, for both the opportunity and his kind words about the book.

The Huffington Post ran a a slideshow of America's Most Wanted Jihadists featured in "Jihad Joe."

I had an opinion column at on the increasing use of guns by terrorists. Sadly, I think this is a problem that we'll be hearing a lot more about in the months to come.



I appeared May 20 on the Fox News Reporting special "Secrets of 9/11" to discuss the role of Anwar Awlaki in the September 11 attacks. You can find even more revelations about Americans who helped the 9/11 hijackers and Anwar Awlaki's role in Jihad Joe.

"Jihad Joe" also reveals the existence of other American support networks for September 11, including infrastructure created by Ali Mohamed, an American citizen and Al Qaeda spy who infiltrated the U.S. Army and played games with the CIA and FBI.

Thanks to everyone who worked on the project for including me, and thanks to everyone who had a good word for my appearance. If they make it available on Hulu, I will link it from the blog.

Click here to see the INTELWIRE exclusive documents featured on the show

Another INTELWIRE exclusive story of note on Awlaki:

U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki

An excerpt from "Jihad Joe" dealing with Awlaki:

Anwar Awlaki is NOT the next Osama bin Laden

Buy "Jihad Joe: today

Publishers Weekly Review: Jihad Joe is "timely and chilling"

Labels: 9-11, 9-11-Commission, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Awlaki, J-M-Berger, Jihad-Joe

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American Jihad: From Smoking Fuses To Smoking Barrels

I had an opinion piece in the New York Daily News about the growing emphasis on the use of guns by American jihadists and their Al Qaeda inspirations.

When people think about terrorism, they tend to envision bombs, hostages and hijackings. But the future of terrorism increasingly belongs to the humble gun. From Frankfurt to Mumbai and beyond, terrorists are making the gun their primary weapon of choice.

Nowhere is this threat more troubling than here in the United States. In the decade since the Sept. 11 attacks, 17 Americans have been killed by reasonably clear-cut cases of homegrown Islamist terrorism. Every one of those deaths was caused by a gun. And if Al Qaeda has its way, there will be many more.

For much more about American jihadists, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!

Recent Jihad Joe news:

J.M. Berger discussing Anwar Awlaki on Fox News Reporting: Secrets of 9/11

Documents featured in Secrets of 9/11

You can also view a live Webcast of Jihad Joe launch event at George Washington University's Homeland Security Policy Institute on Tuesday May 24, 10:30 a.m.

Labels: American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Guns, J-M-Berger, Jihad-Joe

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Declassified State Department Cables On Hezbollah's Imad Mughniyah

Declassified documents reveal that the Bush administration was prepared to deal with Hezbollah as a political party if it abandoned the use of violence.

The new documents were released in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by INTELWIRE for State Department cables relating to Hezbollah's terrorist mastermind, Imad Mughniyah, reportedly killed in a car bombing in 2008.

Mughniyah is believed to have killed hundreds of Americans during his terrorist career and is believed to have been responsible for the 1983 terrorist bombings of U.S. targets in Lebanon, among many other attacks. A recent lawsuit also alleges Mughniyah helped facilitate the September 11 attacks (memorandum, PDF).

The new documents also point to Mughniyah's involvement in a host of attacks, including a March 12, 2002, bombing that killed six Israeli civilians in northern Israel, which had not previously been attributed to him.

The cables also seem to represent overtures toward Hezbollah made through diplomatic contacts with Syria in the wake of September 11, although Mughniyah remained a sticking point.

A February 2005 cable supporting an EU effort to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization stated:

[The] U.S. is opposed to Hizballah's use of terror and violence not Hizballah as social/political/religious party in Lebanon. But there should be no recognition of Hizballah as legitimate party until all involvement in violence ceases. There should also be no distinction between the so-called "military" and "political" wings of Hizballah.

The cable went on to indicate that Hezbollah could not be treated as a political party unless its popular leader, Hassan Nasrallah, were to step down and the organization were to cut ties Mughniyah.

Another cable dated May 10, 2002 described a meeting between former U.S. Ambassador Theodore Kattouf and former Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Khaddam:

The Ambassador interjected that the U.S. was not concerned about Hizballah's past resistance activities inside Lebanon. Although we strongly disagree with Hizballah's aims, we did not take issue with it playing a social and political role in Lebanon. But Hizballah was implicated in the 1996 Khobar Tower bombings in Saudi Arabia, something the ambassador knows firsthand, since he was the charge, and in bombings in Argentina in the early 90s. Beyond this, the U.S. would neither forget nor forgive Imad Mughniyeh and his associates for their attacks on U.S. personnel in Lebanon during the 1980s.

But a January 2002 cable seemed to indicate intelligence suggesting Mughniyah had already pulled back from involvement with Hezbollah in favor of Iran, stating:

French information indicated that Imad Mughniyeh and his external security organization had distanced themselves from Hizballah proper and were taking more and more of their direction from Tehran.

The documents also describe Mughniyah-related plots to attack French, American and Israeli targets in the Ivory Coast during the 1980s.

Click here to read the cables (PDF)

Labels: 9-11, FOIA, Hezbollah, Imad-Mughniyah, INTELFILES, State-Department

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Anwar Awlaki 9/11 Documents As Seen On 'Fox News Reporting: Secrets of 9/11' And In J.M. Berger's Book 'Jihad Joe'

I appeared tonight on the Fox News Reporting special "Secrets of 9/11" to discuss the role of Anwar Awlaki in the September 11 attacks.

You can find even more revelations about Americans who helped the 9/11 hijackers and Anwar Awlaki's role in my new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, on sale now.

"Jihad Joe" also reveals the existence of other American support networks for September 11, including infrastructure created by Ali Mohamed, an American citizen and Al Qaeda spy who infiltrated the U.S. Army and played games with the CIA and FBI.

Here are links to PDFs of some of the key documents featured on tonight's show:

9/26/2001: FBI Letterhead Memorandum, Anwar Aulaqi

10/23/2001: FBI Communication, Anwar Aulaqi, Dar El Hijra mosque

10/8/2001: FBI FD-302, Associates of hijackers in San Diego

9/15/2001: FBI FD-302, Interrogation of Anwar Aulaqi

Another INTELWIRE exclusive story of note on Awlaki:

U.S. Gave Millions To Charity Linked To Al Qaeda, Anwar Awlaki

An excerpt from "Jihad Joe" dealing with Awlaki:

Anwar Awlaki is NOT the next Osama bin Laden

You can also click here for the latest INTELWIRE coverage of Awlaki, or follow INTELWIRE on Twitter.

ABOUT JIHAD JOE

They are Americans, and they are mujahideen. Hundreds of men from every imaginable background have walked away from the traditional American dream to volunteer for battle in the name of Islam. Some have taken part in foreign wars aligned with U.S. interests while others have carried out violence against Western interests abroad, fought the U.S. military, and even plotted terrorist attacks on American soil.

"Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam" is the first comprehensive look at the phenomenon of American jihadists from the 1970s to the present, and looking ahead to the future, drawing on scores of interviews and thousands of pages of exclusive documents.

Buy "Jihad Joe: today

Publishers Weekly Review: Jihad Joe is "timely and chilling"

Learn more about the book

On May 24, 2011, the Homeland Security Policy Institute will host J.M. Berger for a Policy and Research Forum Event to launch and discuss "Jihad Joe" and the broader issue of American jihadists.

Click here for information for the event including live Webcast

Labels: American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Awlaki, J-M-Berger, Jihad-Joe

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Video Preview of 'Fox News Reporting: Secrets of 9/11'

You'll find me here... Check out the story, as well as the program at 10 p.m. ET on Fox News Channel. For a whole lot more about Anwar Awlaki's links to the September 11 attacks, read my new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, available now in bookstores everywhere, on Amazon.com and many other online booksellers.

After the program, come back to news.intelwire.com to see the original documents featured during the show.

Labels: 9-11, 9-11-Commission, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Awlaki, J-M-Berger, Jihad-Joe

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

American Terrorist Anwar Awlaki's Role Examined In 'Secrets of 9/11'

You can see me talking about Anwar Awlaki's role in 9/11 and my new book "Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam" in the Fox News Reporting special "Secrets of 9/11," Friday at 10p ET, hosted by Bill Hemmer.



I'm in the teaser at 1:05. And just in case this begs the question, I did not tell them Awlaki was the new Osama bin Laden.

For a whole lot more about Anwar Awlaki's links to the September 11 attacks, read my new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, available now in bookstores everywhere, on Amazon.com and many other online booksellers.

Labels: 9-11, 9-11-Commission, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Awlaki, J-M-Berger, Jihad-Joe

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

New bin Laden Video Still Just Audio

Osama bin Laden's "final" message was released on jihadist forums last night. You can see the video at Jihadology and read about its praise for the Arab uprisings at the New York Times.

For now, my only comment on this communique is note, with some interest, that the release is an audio-only communique wrapped in a video that amounts to nothing more than a still picture of bin Laden.

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, we now know that bin Laden had very good video recording equipment at his Abbottabad manse and he clearly intended for his videos to be seen -- as evidenced by his dyed beard and carefully chosen garb.

Any operational security rationale to withhold video in favor of audio (which was already paper-thin) is now completely voided by bin Laden's death. So again I wonder: Why no video?

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Osama-Bin-Laden, Terrorist-Communiques

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Revolution Muslim's Co-Founder Charged For South Park Threats

The Justice Department has issued an arrest warrant for Younus Abdullah Mohammed, aka Jesse Morton, the "emir" of the group formerly known as Revolution Muslim.

As of this morning, there were no indications the warrant had been executed. An item with a posting date of today appeared on IslamPolicy.com, RM's successor site, using a username that has in the past been associated with Mohammed.

An online resume ascribed to Mohammed listed his residence as Morocco. Morocco has no extradition treaty with the United States.

According to an affidavit in support of a criminal complaint filed May 13, the move to arrest Mohammed has been in the works for a long time. The complaint was first reported by the Investigative Project on Terrorism.

Mohammed is charged with communicating threats in the form of publishing Zach Chesser's diatribes against the creators of South Park, which promised death to anyone who depicted or mocked the Prophet Mohammed (the subject of a meta-commentary on the show in April 2010).

According to the affidavit, Mohammed recruited Chesser to write for RevolutionMuslim.com in early 2010, after Chesser had littered the Internet with a variety of provocative postings in favor of terrorism and jihad against the West. Chesser was promoted to administrator on the site in April 2010.

After the initial posting, which was written by Chesser, both Mohammed and Chesser worked together to refine a written response in an effort to parse the language of the post and cast it as a "warning," rather than a "threat," which fooled no one.

Chesser wrote the first draft of the response, and Mohammed added a quote from bin Laden and a passage that read ""[t]hus our position remains that it is likely the creators of South Park will indeed end up [dead], and we pray Allah makes this a reality," according to the affidavit.

The "prayer" was deleted from the final version at Chesser's request. Chesser and Mohammed discussed the changes in a phone call -- which was being tapped by the FBI, the affidavit reveals. Mohammed told Chesser, the South Park controversy "was very, very, very strategic so far, but we have to be careful, I don't want to go to prison, to be honest with you."

For much more about Revolution Muslim and other American jihadists, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!.

Labels: Islam-Policy, Revolution-Muslim, South-Park, Younus-Abdullah-Mohammed, Zach-Chesser

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

J.M. Berger's New Book, Jihad Joe, On Sale Now!

They are Americans, and they are mujahideen. Hundreds of men from every imaginable background have walked away from the traditional American dream to volunteer for battle in the name of Islam. Some have taken part in foreign wars aligned with U.S. interests while others have carried out violence against Western interests abroad, fought the U.S. military, and even plotted terrorist attacks on American soil.

"Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam" is the first comprehensive look at the phenomenon of American jihadists from the 1970s to the present, and looking ahead to the future, drawing on scores of interviews and thousands of pages of exclusive documents.

Buy "Jihad Joe: today

Publisher's Weekly says "Berger lifts the veil on the phenomenon of American jihadists in this timely and chilling examination. ... Drawing on detailed case studies of individual American jihadists, the author concludes that they are a diverse group and their "path to radicalization begins with a rock-solid belief that Muslims are a victim class." Berger's expose painstakingly lays out the scope and character of the American jihadist movement and points the way to a national debate on solutions."

Click for full review

On May 24, 2011, the Homeland Security Policy Institute will host J.M. Berger for a Policy and Research Forum Event to launch "Jihad Joe."

Founded in 2003, The George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute (HSPI) is a nonpartisan "think and do" tank whose mission is to build bridges between theory and practice to advance homeland security through an interdisciplinary approach. HSPI's impact stretches from Washington to far-flung international capitals. By reaching across disciplines and partnering with universities and institutes, and hosting leading national and international leaders and practitioners, it is a central destination for homeland security policy analysis and debate.

RSVP for the event

Labels: American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, J-M-Berger, Jihad-Joe

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Feds: US Supporters of Pakistani Taliban Sent At Least $50,000 To Fund Terror

UPDATED

Three naturalized American citizens in South Florida have been indicted for providing money and material support to the Pakistani Taliban, the Justice Department announced today.

Those arrested today and charged include:

Hafiz Muhammed Sher Ali Khan, 76, imam of the Miami Masjid

Hafiz Khan's son, Irfan Khan, 37, also of Miami, Jamaat Al-Mu’mineen Mosque in Margate, Fla.

Izhar Khan, 24, of North Lauderdale, Fla.

Hafiz and Izhar Khan were arrested in Florida. Izhar Khan was arrested in Los Angeles. Three others living in Pakistan were charged under the same indictment, but are still at large. It was not immediately clear if they were also American citizens.

Ali Rehman, aka “Faisal Ali Rehman”

Hafiz Khan's daughter, Amina Khan

Hafiz Khan's grandson, Alam Zeb

Full text of indictment

Hafiz Khan, a native of the Swat Valley region of Pakistan, has been imam at the Miami Masjid in the U.S. since at least 1999, according to the indictment. He is accused of soliciting, collecting and transferring funds to Tehrik-e Taliban, the Pakistani group behind the attempted bombing of Times Square by American citizen Faisal Shahzad.

“Despite being an Imam, or spiritual leader, Hafiz Khan was by no means a man of peace," U.S. Attorney Wifredo A. Ferrer said in a statement.

Hafiz Khan is also accused of founding and controlling a madrassa in the Swat region of Pakistan, Madrassa Arabia Ahya-al-Aloom, which was used to provide shelter and support to TTP members as well as to indoctrinate children in jihad. Children from the madrassa were allegedly sent to fight Americans in Afghanistan.

Ali Rehman, one of the suspects living in Pakistan, was charged with trying to provide guns and financial support to TTP. The rest of the suspects were accused of collecting and delivering money to TTP. Formal charges for all six include conspiracy to commit murder and kidnapping, and material support of a terrorist organization.

Significant amounts of money moved through the network, according to the indictment. Between 2008 and 2010, at least $50,000 in funds were moved from the U.S. to Pakistan for use by TTP. Ferrer told the Miami Herald that considerably more money was involved.

Hafiz Khan took part in phone conversations with Irfan Khan and others in which he called for a suicide bomb attack on the Pakistani parliament as well as strategies to assassinate Pakistani officials using guns. In a separate conversation, he called for the death of Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari and an Iranian-style revolution to establish Islamic law in Pakistan.

The fundraising was not generalized. At times, Hafiz Kahn specifically directed funds to fighters or units and advised couriers in Pakistan on how to avoid detection. Most of the money was intended to buy guns and pay Taliban fighters and their families.

The Muslim Communities Association & Coalition of South Florida Muslim Organizations issued a statement today saying they were "aware of the indictment." According to the statement, the organizations have "been working with the U.S. Attorney's Office and the Miami FBI office, and appreciate the efforts of law enforcement to root out potential sources and supporters of terrorism. We stand together with the U.S. Attorney, Wifredo Ferrer, and the men and women of the FBI, and have been and will be cooperating with law enforcement to our fullest ability."

The statement said Khan had been suspended as imam of the Masjid Miami.

South Florida has long been a center for Islamic extremists. Prior to September 11, followers of the blind sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman helped recruit jihadists in the area to fight in Bosnia and Chechnya.

Two of Al Qaeda's most famous American recruits also hail from the area -- Jose Padilla, who was sent to the U.S. by Khalid Shaikh Mohammed on a mission to blow up apartment buildings, and Adnan Shukrijumah, who the FBI believes is an important leader of Al Qaeda's external opertations.

TTP was responsible for the attempted bombing of Times Square in May 2010. Faisal Shazad, a naturalized American citizen, was trained and partially financed by TTP. He was also videotaped meeting with senior leaders of the group.

Just this week, TTP carried out a suicide bombing in Pakistan that killed 80 people. A statement issued by the group said that the attack was "revenge" for the killing of Osama bin Laden.

For much more about American jihadists in Florida and all over the United States, buy J.M. Berger's new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, out now!.

Labels: Faisal-Shahzad, Florida, Hafiz-Khan, Izhar-Khan, Taliban, Tehrik-E-Taliban

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Jihad Joe Excerpt Now Available On Aslanmedia.com

Reza Aslan's Aslanmedia.com is graciously hosting an excerpt from my new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam.

The excerpt is the tail-end of the book's second chapter on Anwar Awlaki, and the title of the excerpt is "Anwar Awlaki is NOT the next Osama bin Laden."

There's a lot more depth, color and background on Awlaki to be found in the book, which is available starting this weekend, but I thought this particular section was the right choice given the recent and wildly irresponsible media speculation about Awlaki possibly "taking over" for Osama bin Laden.

Enjoy the excerpt, and check out the book!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, Anwar-Awlaki, Jihad-Joe, Osama-Bin-Laden

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

The Bin Laden Porn Stash

Many of us in the terrorism-watching biz were waiting to hear about this, and today the news officially broke. Nestled among the mountains of intelligence recovered from Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compund was a stash of pornography.

The reason we were waiting for this news is that anyone who has taken a peek at a terrorist hard drive has found porn lurking amidst the bits. It's common enough to be a punch line. From Afghanistan to Iraq to Saudi Arabia and beyond, terrorists love porn.

I found the images below in Al Qaeda computer data recovered in Bosnia. I've cleaned them up since this isn't that kind of Web site, but this should give you an idea about what Islamic extremists like -- big fake boobs, Asian women and MMF action.

Click to view images (probably not safe for work)

Oh, but it gets worse. In Iraq, they loved porn so much they made it themselves. Computers captured by the U.S. military from Islamist insurgents revealed unedited footage of homemade child pornography, according to sources who have viewed the footage. Insurgents could be heard on the clips coaching young boys on how to perform sexual acts.

People in the PSYOPS counterterrorism world have long tried to figure out how to exploit these images. After all, they show a level of hypocrisy that is more than epic. The problem, of course, particularly in the Iraq situation, is that analysts can barely stand to look at the material, let alone figure out a way to reference it productively.

The bin Laden porn stash, at last, offers an opportunity to bring this issue into the light. There's a lot more to be said about jihadists and their sexual "issues," and I'm working on a longer piece about this subject, but for now, a little schadenfreude is the order of the day, and the deeper levels will provide much fodder for thought and discussion in the weeks to come.

J.M. Berger is author of the new book, "Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam," available from Amazon.com. For videos and documents related to the book, check out JihadJoeBook.com. Follow @intelwire on Twitter for updates about American jihadists.

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Iraq, Osama-Bin-Laden, Pornography

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Omar Hammami Continues To Fall Short In Speech On Bin Laden's Passing

It's shaping up to be a good week to have a book coming out on American jihadists. Among this week's stories:

Washington bomb suspect read Inspire, visited jihad forums

Two arrested in NY synagogue bomb plot

Feds warn of homegrown terror threat

Then there's Omar Hammami, also known as Abu Mansour Al Amriki, a fighter for the Al Qaeda-linked Al Shabab in Somalia and also one of the leading lights of the modern American jihadist movement. Hammami came out this week vowing to avenge the death of Osama bin Laden during a conference of the Somali group's top leadership.


Omar Hammami vowing revenge for Osama bin Laden's
killing at an event in Somalia this week.

Audio of the event was posted on the jihadist Web forums and can be heard at Jihadology.net. Hammami's speech was fairly typical of his previous attempts at jihadist discourse -- awkward.

"We are gathered here today to rejoice in the fact that our beloved sheikh has achieved a fate he sought for two decades," Hammami said, the opening phrase a relatively rare nod to his Alabama roots.

Like his previous work, Hammami's speech consisted mainly of a series of jihadist potboiler cliches to the effect that the jihad continues on despite the deaths of its leaders. Then he turned to the red meat, which sounded an awful lot like someone else wrote it for him. Essentially, he argues, everything America does only further inflames its enemies against it.

"We announced today to America and to the world that Sheikh Osama bin Laden kindled the fire of jihad decades ago," he said. "No matter how much anyone seeks to snuff out its flame, the embers will only serve to spread and further ignite the kindred. This indeed is America's dilemma, America's conundrum."

Much of the speech seemed to be aimed at the American public, criticizing Obama's handling of the revolution in Egypt and his failure to close Guantanamo Bay in a rambling and sometimes confusing manner. He also promised the return of the Islamic caliphate and staked out a fairly strong position in favor of global jihad (as opposed to the primarily local jihad currently being waged by Al Shabab).

The selection of Hammami as the American face of Al Shabab specifically and global jihad more generally is an interesting gamble. He's not a dynamic or compelling speaker, and the sentiments he has expressed on camera rarely sound like his own. He tends to parrot well-established jihadist themes, only occasionally adding oddly dissonant snatches of language that sound like his own thoughts.

On the other hand, Hammami has a lot going for him in the credibility department. For one thing, he's established a reputation as a real live battlefield commander (whatever the reality might be). And his frequent appearances with Al Shabab's leadership, combined with snippets of reported U.S. intelligence, strongly suggest that he's an important figure within Al Shabab's organization.

He also cuts a good looking jihadist figure. In his early videos, Hammami was rail thin and ratty-looking, which made him look authentic. Now that his authenticity is no longer an issue, he's filled out a bit and these days looks more like he strolled out of a Breck commercial than a Somali foxhole. He does inspire people to emulate him, but he's not a big mainstream draw. His appeal seems to resonate most with people who are already close to action.

In some ways, Hammami is the yang to Anwar Awlaki's yin. The Yemeni-American cleric is far better spoken and has a stronger appeal to people who are earlier in the process of radicalization, but his battlefield credentials are negligible.

And while Awlaki's status as a member of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is well-established, his operational importance to the core organization is not nearly so clearly delineated (although we do know he's sending a parade of losers to attack America).

Every time a news story about Awlaki appears, it sets off a round of arguments among terrorism experts about just exactly how important he is to AQAP as an organization, with speculation ranging from seeing him as a leader, a senior leader, a top leader, the ultimate leader, or a sycophantic hanger-on who is tolerated but not especially respected or influential within the organization. And unlike Hammami, we've never seen Awlaki appear side by side with AQAP's real Yemeni leadership.

If you could fuse Hammami's military cred with Awlaki's oratorical gifts, you would create a force to be reckoned with. And that's probably what Al Shabab is trying to do by pushing Hammami to the forefront. Unfortunately, Hammami has proven to be a slow learner. He's improved over the last few years but not enough to make me think he will ever have the chops to be more than a mouthpiece for other people's opinions.

As such, he's still an asset to Al Shabab. But he'll never be a game-changer.

For much more about Hammami and Awlaki, check out my new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, headed for bookshelves this weekend. Some pre-orders are already shipping, so order today!

Labels: Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, Al-Shabab, Anwar-Awlaki, Omar-Hammami

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Man Arrested on Explosives Charge In Washington State Visited Jihadist Forums, Read AQAP Inspire

A Washington state man arrested on bomb charges Monday was a reader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's "Inspire" Engligh-language magazine and sought to make contacts with terrorist through jihadist forums.

The arrest comes in the wake of heightened concerns about homegrown terrorism due to the death of Osama bin Laden.

Joey Brice, 21, of Clarkston, Wash., was taken into custody Monday after a search warrant was executed at his home. According to local news reports, agents removed several bags of evidence from his home.

In April 2010, Brice detonated an improvised explosive device using several components commonly found in terrorist bomb recipes. The device detonated prematurely, severely injuring Brice. The bomb formed the basis for the grand jury indictment which led to his arrest this week. Brice was previously convicted of possessing a loaded firearm without a permit and minor drug charges.

An affidavit in support of the search warrant on Brice's house and other properties was unsealed this week and obtained by INTELWIRE. It reveals significant new information about Brice's activities including extensive interest in jihadist online forums and propaganda.

However, the affidavit does not clearly indicate whether Brice was a would-be jihadist (or even a Muslim), or simply a would-be serial bomber. In addition to his dalliances with online jihadists, Brice posted comments and contents related to Timothy McVeigh and the attempted Martin Luther King Day bombing in Spokane, Wash. The unifying thread in his activities appears to be explosives.

Nevertheless, he found much content of interest among jihadist sources, including Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's "Inspire" Engligh-language magazine. In online postings, Brice made references to an Inspire article titled "Make a bomb in the kitchen of your mom," among others.

Brice tried to reach out to jihadists online. After posting messages to various people online that he was interested in a jihadist forums where he could discuss moving "from knowledge to action," he received a message from someone named Binyamine suggesting "try your luck at [Ansar Al Mujahideen]," a well-known jihadist forum with links to real-world terrorists and an English-language section. Brice also visited a less significant jihadist site known as Deen Al Haq.

Brice also maintained a YouTube account under the name "StrengthofAllah," according to media reports and the affidavit. The account was used to upload videos of explosive devices being used in the Clarkston area. Some of the videos were labeled with the logo of Al Qaeda in Iraq and featured nasheeds (jihadist war chants) as soundtracks.

The videos showed explosive devices similar to the one that injured Brice in 2010 and showed test detonations at the same location where Brice had been injured. Another video showed an IED used to destroy a house somewhere outside of the U.S. The StrengthofAllah account was also used to upload videos celebrating martyrdom and encouraging jihad against the United States. Brice closed the account in January 2011.

Commenting on a video about the shooting of U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Brice wrote, "As long as it's one more dead American kuffar, what difference does it make to me if she is a democrat or gop?"

Other users commenting on the video called StrengthofAllah "f--ing stupid and delusional," and accused him of being a right-wing Zionist posing as a Muslim online. "I hate Jews," Brice responded laconically.

Brice often posted under Arab- or Muslim-sounding names, but also under the names John Doe, Joe, or Joey. He also took part in a wide variety of online activities oriented toward violence, including prolific posts on a Web site called the Young News Channel, which features violent videos and extreme pornography. According to the affidavit, Brice was listed as a "super moderator" for the site.

For more about American jihadists, order Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go To War In The Name Of Islam, the new book by INTELWIRE's J.M. Berger.

Labels: Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, American-Jihadists, Inspire-Magazine, Jihad-Joe, Joseph-Brice

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Ruling: FBI, DOJ Lied To Judge Regarding CAIR FOIA Search

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com

The FBI and the Department of Justice lied in response to a Freedom of Information Act request for documents pertaining to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) and other Islamic organizations, according to a judge's ruling filed last month.

The government cited "national security" as its reason for misleading both the requesters and the court in a subsequent appeal of the request.

The FOIA request was filed in 2006 by a group of Muslim individuals and organizations in Southern California, including the Islamic Shura Council of Southern California, CAIR's California chapter, the Islamic Center of San Gabriel Valley, the Islamic Center of Hawthorne, the West Coast Islamic Center, Human Assistance and Development International Inc.

Individuals included in the request included Muzammil Siddiqui, a former employee of the Muslim World League in New York, and Hussam Ayloush, of CAIR's Los Angeles office.

The request asked for "[a]ny records relating or referring' [to themselves] including but not limited to records that document any collection of information about monitoring, surveillance, observation, questioning, interrogation, investigation and/or infiltration of any of the Requesters or their activities."

In 2009, the requesters appealed responses from the FBI and Justice Department that it had fully responded to the FOIA request, arguing that material had been improperly redacted and that the FBI and DOJ had not performed an adequate search. The court ordered an in camera review of material related to the request in order to verify the government's compliance.

David Hardy, the FBI's top FOIA compliance officer, subequently filed an in camera declaration revealing that the government had misled the court in its filings for the case by misrepresenting both the basis for redacting the documents that had been released as well as the number of documents found.

According to Judge Cormac J. Carney (emphasis added):

The Government's in camera submission raises a very disturbing issue. The Government previously provided false and misleading information to the Court. The Government represented to the Court in pleadings, declarations, and briefs that it had searched its databases and found only a limited number of documents responsive to Plaintiffs' FOIA request and that a significant amount of information within those documents was outside the scope of Plaintiffs' FOIA request. The Government's representations were then, and remain today, blatantly false. As the Government's in camera submission makes clear, the Government located a significant number of documents that were responsive to Plaintiffs' FOIA request. Virtually all of the information within those documents is inside the scope of Plaintiffs' FOIA request. The Government asserts that it had to mislead the Court regarding the Government's response to Plaintiffs' FOIA request to avoid compromising national security.

Carney took a dim view of this rationalization, writing, "The Government cannot, under any circumstance, affirmatively mislead the Court." FOIA exemptions for national security and intelligence gathering "do not grant the Government a license to lie to the Court," Carney wrote.

The ruling was provided to INTELWIRE by Salt Lake City attorney Jesse Trentadue, who is also embroiled in a lawsuit against the government over FOIA requests relating to the Oklahoma City bombing. Trentadue filed a copy of Carney's ruling in his own case as evidence of the FBI's bad faith in responding to FOIA requests. David Hardy also responded for the government during proceedings in Trentadue's lawsuit.

CAIR has been the subject of FBI investigations relating to its origins with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood support organizations, as detailed in the terrorism financing trial of the Holy Land Foundation. The Muslim World League has also been investigated for links to terrorism financing.

Read the complete ruling (PDF)

Labels: Council-on-American-Islamic-Relations, FOIA, Hamas, Jesse-Trentadue, Muslim-World-Leage, Oklahoma-City-Bombing

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

Talking Jihad Joe at GWU's Homeland Security Policy Institute

An announcement today from George Washington University's Homeland Security Policy Institute:

On May 24, 2011, the Homeland Security Policy Institute will host J.M. Berger for a Policy and Research Forum Event. Terrorism analyst J.M. Berger is author of the forthcoming book Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go To War In The Name Of Islam, the first comprehensive look at the long history of American involvement in jihadist causes.

I'm very excited about this event and hope you all can attend. You can RSVP here.

For more about the book including videos and documents, click here.

To order "Jihad Joe," click here. The book should ship out at the end of this week.

More news soon!

Labels: American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Homeland-Security-Policy-Institute, J-M-Berger, Jihad-Joe

Posted by J.M. Berger | Permalink

 

New Osama bin Laden Videos: More Questions Than Answers

Five new videos of Osama bin Laden were released by the Defense Department today, and they immediately raise more questions than they answered. (See them all at the Danger Room.)

One video, likely not intended for release while bin Laden was alive, showed the Al Qaeda leader watching himself on satellite TV, while sitting on the floor wrapped in a blanket. The remaining four videos appear to be raw footage from propaganda pieces.

The latter videos beg the question: Why haven't we seen them? Or have we?


9/11/2007 video of Osama bin Laden

Two of the videos released today closely match the very last video publicly released by bin Laden, on the occasion of the anniversary of September 11 in 2007. Bin Laden is wearing the same clothing and looks to be about the same in terms of age and beard coloration. That video was released in a very low quality version in which the image actually froze midway through bin Laden's speech and stayed that way until the end.

It's clear from today's releases that the original videos were of very good quality, although the backgrounds were less than perfect. However the background issue is a relatively simple problem to solve. (Other videos from AQ leaders have featured comparable background embarrassments as well.)

Since 2007, bin Laden's releases have all been audio-only. They haven't even included new still pictures. Meanwhile, Ayman Al Zawahiri and other Al Qaeda leaders have issued a procession of high quality videos with no significant technical problems.

Myself and others have speculated about why that might have been. The most common theories included:

Bin Laden had changed his appearance and was holding back images to protect his anonymity.

Bin Laden was hiding somewhere where he didn't have access to good recording equipment.

Bin Laden was so frail and unhealthy from living in a cave without his dialysis machine that he couldn't project enough strength to justify a video.

Today's release, along with news that bin Laden had been squirreled away in his Abbottabad manse for years, never emerging from the house and with his kidneys working just fine, make it clear that none of these reasons apply.

The fact that bin Laden went to the trouble of dressing and dying his beard for these tapes indicates that he intended for them to be seen. So why weren't they released?

Media honcho Adam Gadahn and video starlet Ayman Al Zawahiri have some 'splaining to do. While one can construct a Machiavellian rationale that they intended to perpetuate one or more of the above theories, that seems a bit cumbersome to me and the tradeoff of failing to project strength doesn't seem especially compelling.

It's possible (and before this week I would have said likely) that Gadahn or Zawahiri controlled the release mechanism for the videos. They were the gatekeepers, so to speak, and the video had to pass through their hands before being released to the forums. However, the more we learn about bin Laden's secure location and his apparent operational relevance, the more that premise has to be re-examined. It may very well turn out to be true, but it doesn't look like a slam dunk given the latest revelations.

Who decided that Osama bin Laden's face would no longer be seen? What were their reasons? Was it an attempt to protect bin Laden or to marginalize him? Or maybe it's as simple as bin Laden was recording RMVB files and Gadahn didn't have the right codecs to convert them for editing?

Stay tuned. The information download from Abbottabad is only just beginning.

Labels: Abbottabad, Adam-Gadahn, Al-Qaeda, Ayman-Al-Zawahiri, Osama-Bin-Laden

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Jihad Joe Shipping Soon, And More Book-Related News To Come

I just received my copy of Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, and I'm very excited to finally hold the real thing in my hands.

I wanted to take the occasion to remind everyone that it's shipping out next weekend. I will have an announcement soon about an event in D.C. oriented around the book later this month, as well as a TV appearance currently scheduled for soon after the release. In the meantime, here's a few things that people are saying about the book.

"Investigative journalist and documentary filmmaker Berger lifts the veil on the phenomenon of American jihadists in this timely and chilling examination. [...] Berger's exposé painstakingly lays out the scope and character of the American jihadist movement and points the way to a national debate on solutions."



"Jihad Joe is a hell of a book -- authoritatively reported, well sourced, and painstakingly researched. This is required reading for anyone seeking to understand the true nature of the terrorist threat that confronts us. Berger has succeeded in producing a timely work that will tell everyone something they didn't know about the topic, whether they are everyday people or those well versed in the subject."



"A fascinating journey into the rise, expansion, and future of American jihadism. J. M. Berger goes beyond the Awlaki mania to investigate firsthand the changing nature of the terrorist threat to the United States."




"A must-read insight into America's Muslim 'holy warriors.' J. M. Berger tracked down the families and former associates of U.S. citizens who turned to jihad and violence, and asked a key question: why? Jihad Joe is meticulously researched and refreshingly free of rhetoric."



"J.M. Berger's Jihad Joe is a timely MUST READ. It provides the first comprehensive background and analysis on Americans joining the jihadi movement over the past thirty years. It adds to the growing body of literature on the jihadi phenomenon and offers new research that better contextualizes the current rise of American involvement in the jihadi movement. Most importantly, Jihad Joe, unlike many recent works, is non-partisan and non-political. The methodical research speaks for itself, which is reassuring in an over-politicized environment."

Labels: American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Jihad-Joe

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Can "Lone Wolves" Travel In Packs?

By J.M. Berger
INTELWIRE.com

The death of Osama bin Laden has a lot of people worried about Al Qaeda's revenge. How will the terrorist organization respond to the death of its leader? Will there be new attacks on America?

It's not a simple question. The central Al Qaeda organization -- the group of men based in Afghanistan and Pakistan who attacked us on September 11 -- was already under pressure before bin Laden's death, and it's going to be under a lot more pressure once U.S. intelligence finishes reading the computer hard drives they seized from bin Laden's house.

Then there are Al Qaeda's affiliates abroad, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Al Shabab. These organizations may have better capacity for an attack, but they also have distractions -- namely revolutions in their backyards. Some or all of these groups are likely to attempt something, but the nature and timing of such attacks could take any number of forms.

The biggest question mark comes from the group uniquely positioned to avenge Osama bin Laden's death -- the homegrown American terrorists commonly referred to as "lone wolves."

Since September 11, U.S. authorities have become increasingly concerned about the terrorist threat from radicalized American Muslims who are willing and able to carry out acts of violence without institutional support from a formal terrorist network such as Al Qaeda. My new book, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, looks at the few successes and significant failures of the lone-wolf crowd.

In truth, most of the American lone wolves were not truly alone; they are loosely networked with each other and with various Al Qaeda franchises. Fort Hood gunman Nidal Hasan was guided by Anwar Awlaki, who is tied to Al Qaeda in Yemen. Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad was trained and financed by the Pakistani Taliban. The would-be Portland Christmas bomber Mohamed Mohamud thought he was being helped by al Qaeda Central, but his helpers turned out to be FBI agents. The same thing happened to Antonio Martinez, who hoped to bomb a U.S. military recruiting station near Baltimore.

Worries about these homegrown terrorists acting alone, or with minimal support and supervision, can be traced back to the writings of a jihadist ideologue whom not many Americans have heard of -- Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, better known by his nom de jihad, Abu Musab Al Suri.

Al Suri is an Al Qaeda member who produced massive amount of jihadist training material in video and in books. His works, which are currently being reprinted in serialized form by Al Qaeda in Yemen's English language magazine "Inspire," call for individual Muslims to take up the banner of jihad without waiting for support from a formal terrorist organization.

This is most commonly referred to today as "leaderless jihad," and it takes more than a few pages from a concept known as "leaderless resistance," which was championed by white supremacist Louis Beam for use in the United States during the 1980s and 1990s.

Thus far, leaderless jihad -- like leaderless resistance before it -- has been a perennial underachiever. While a fairly impressive number of radicals have attempted to act on their own, most have crafted terrorist attacks that were doomed to fail, and even the most successful "leaderless" events (like Hasan's shooting spree) have been small in comparison to September 11 or the Al Qaeda's 1998 East African embassy bombings.

There are a lot of factors holding back leaderless jihadists. For one thing, terrorism tends not to be easy, especially if you're trying to build a bomb or pull off a complicated stunt. Money and training -- of the sort provided by a formal terrorist organization -- exponentially increase the effectiveness of a would-be terrorist.

And the people most likely to have been influenced by Al Suri's ideas tend to be, well, let's call it "kinetically challenged." They spend a lot of time banging on keyboards in darkened rooms. They tend to be young. Very few have any real experience or training in fighting, unlike the American jihadists of the pre-9/11 era, who were often military veterans.

But the leaderless jihad has now arrived at a crossroads with the death of Osama bin Laden.

Louis Beam's "leaderless" followers shared a common conception. One day, they imagined, a pivotal event would cause all of the leaderless cells to step forward and take action, inspired by a common provocation, and sweep over the country, kicking ass, taking names and generally overthrowing the status quo.

The invasion of Panama was seen as such a precipitating event. When it happened, there was a lot of talk, but no one acted. The Oklahoma City bombing (inspired in part by Beam's philosophy) was exactly the sort of thing that was supposed to launch the revolution. When it happened, they didn't even talk. Virtually all of the racist and anti-government militia groups crawled into the deepest, darkest holes they could find and stayed there for about 10 years. The lesson learned is this: When you don't have a leader, it's pretty easy to stay home.

The death of Osama bin Laden has raised the specter of reprisals. Some sort of response from institutional Al Qaeda and its affiliates is a real possibility, but there are also compelling tactical arguments for them to keep their powder dry. And the culture of jihadist terrorist organizations skews toward long-term thinking. Such reprisals are a serious concern but not a fait accompli. And of course, these organizations are constantly planning terror attacks, with or without provocation, so to some extent, it's just business as usual for them.

The tactical arguments that might slow institutional terrorists don't apply to American "lone wolves," however. Their actions are simpler, and they lack the weight of Al Qaeda's not-insignificant bureaucracy on their shoulders. They are already living next to their targets; the logistics are much simpler.

And so we come to the day of reckoning, the killing by American forces of the global jihad's most important patron, Osama bin Laden. If the lone wolves are a force to contend with, this must be their moment. The opportunity cost for action is negligible. The affront to their sensibilities is enormous.

We really don't have a good handle on how many potential lone wolves might be out there. We know that the number of Americans who take part in jihadist online forums runs at least into the hundreds and most likely into the thousands. A 2007 survey of American Muslims by Pew found that 5 percent admitted to having a favorable view of Al Qaeda, which translates into tens of thousands of people.

But not all of those sympathetic people are likely to act out with violence. So far the number has been extraordinarily small, a fraction of one percent of the total U.S. Muslim population. The open question is how many of these are close to acting and just waiting for the right combination of considerations.

We're about to find out whether the threat from leaderless lone wolves is destined to remain a trickle of malcontents lashing out sporadically, or whether Abu Musab Al Suri's vision of an organically synchronized jihad without borders or affiliations has real legs to carry it into the 21st century.

If not now, when?

We don't know whether the lone wolves have what it takes to make a lasting impact, and that lack of knowledge is more unsettling than comforting. It might be time to try out that new terror alert system. It seems like the right moment for an ounce of prevention.

J.M. Berger is author of the new book, "Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam," available from Amazon.com. For videos and documents related to the book, check out JihadJoeBook.com. Follow @intelwire on Twitter for updates about American jihadists.

Labels: Abu-Musab-Al-Suri, Al-Qaeda, American-Al-Qaeda, American-Jihadists, American-Terrorists, Anwar-Awlaki, Jihad-Joe, Nidal-Malik-Hasan, Osama-Bin-Laden

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So We've Killed Osama Bin Laden;
What Happens Next Matters

Osama bin Laden is dead. So what happens now?

There have been a number of pieces outlining what should be (but isn't) the obvious fact that the war on terrorism is far from over. Check out the following piece by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross for an exhaustive review and a more concise but still very good version from Eric Schmitt of the New York Times.

The big picture analysis and commentary will be flowing all day and for some time to come. I want to talk about a couple of high-stakes questions about what happens next.

NO PICTURES PLEASE

When Abu Musab Zarqawi was killed, the U.S. government trotted out pictures of the body almost immediately and within hours, jihadists online had transformed those pictures into online shrines to Zarqawi's martyrdom. As I noted in a post last year, it would be a tremendous mistake to do the same thing with bin Laden. Jihadist propaganda thrives on pictures of dead martyrs -- and there's no bigger martyr than Osama bin Laden. It's probably inevitable that the pictures will come out, but hopefully it will be months or years later, when passions and interests have diminished somewhat. It will still be a big deal even later, but it's better not to give the jihadis a rallying image at this critical moment.

MESSAGING AND OPERATIONS

This is arguably the most critical moment in the history of Al Qaeda Central. While the war on terrorism, and the Al Qaeda movement, is far from over, Al Qaeda's core operation -- Al Qaeda 1.0, the organization that carried out September 11 -- has suffered a series of challenges over the last several months.

Al Qaeda has always been more about narrative than capabilities. It didn't militarily defeat the Soviets and it was never going to militarily defeat the United States. The question was whether it could create a compelling narrative claim of victory, as it did with the Soviets. Truth is not what's important here, perception is. And that's a two-edged sword.

The Arab uprisings have created a new and growing narrative about Al Qaeda's irrelevance. If Ayman Al-Zawahiri is too slow in issuing a messaging response and a military (i.e., terrorist) response to bin Laden's death, that narrative is going to snowball, and it's going to be a big challenge for Al Qaeda Central to recover.

Zawahiri critically fumbled the ball on the Arab uprisings by issuing a tedious, multipart history lesson that seemed to have been half-written before the protests even started. If he doesn't come out with a strong and relevant statement within the next couple of days, he's going to look even more out of touch and irrelevant, and risks appearing to cower in the face of American threats. And I will wager good money that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula will have an issue of Inspire on "newsstands" before Zawahri speaks, further boosting the status of AQAP against AQ Central.

Similarly, the uprisings created significant narrative pressure on the broad Al Qaeda movement to carry out terrorist or other military operations. The narrative question here is: If Al Qaeda can't strike in the middle of rampant chaos, can it really do anything outside of Afghanistan? Again, the truth is less important than the perception. Al Qaeda can't afford to look toothless, because teeth are really the only thing that the terrorist organization has to offer. Unlike Hamas, Al Qaeda offers no social services. Its religious scholarship is questionable at best. Despite recent tentative efforts, it has no coherent political platform. If Al Qaeda doesn't have a military capability, it doesn't have much of anything. If AQC cannot carry out a credible strike in revenge for bin Laden's death, it's going to be left behind by its more vigorous children in Yemen and Somalia, among others.

Of course, the franchises will also be under pressure to act, and whoever acts first is going to get a big boost. If absolutely none of Al Qaeda's franchises even manage to carry out a serious strike in the near to mid-term future, we're going to have to revisit a whole lot of assumptions. Unfortunately, I expect we don't have to worry about that problem.

One can argue, of course, that Al Qaeda and its affiliates are patient, long-term planners, which is absolutely true, and that they can afford to wait this out, which may be true. But the fact is that we live in a world where the rate of change is phenomenal and accelerating, and Arab spring shows that the culture of speed is not just a Western affectation. In order to be a force on the world stage, jihadism has to make some concessions to the tempo of the modern world.

Of course, if Al Qaeda does act quickly, it will expose Ayman Al-Zawahiri and its most important operatives to an unprecedented level of risk, given the intelligence that was most certainly acquired during the bin Laden strike. To win the battle, Zawahiri should be hiking out into the wilderness for a long camping trip with just a couple close friends. To stay in the war, he's going to have to take risks. And if we capture or kill Zawahiri within weeks of capturing or killing bin Laden, the narrative of Al Qaeda Central is likely to suffer a catastrophic collapse.

And hitting Awlaki at the same time... Well, I'll save that for another day, but a trifecta here would really create some fundamental change on the battlefield. Not because Awlaki's a particularly good or necessarily vital operational leader. Again, it's the narrative.

TEST FOR THE LONE WOLVES

The stakes are also high for those who argue that Abu Musab Al Suri has revolutionized the terrorist world through his concept of "leaderless jihad." If lone-wolfism has truly arrived on the world stage, we should expect to see a series of lone actors striking out over the next several days. If not now, then when?

There's been a lot of talk about leaderless jihad, and I think that analysts have, so far, given Al Suri credit for a lot more influence and efficacy than he has, so far, deserved. This is Al Suri's moment. If leaderless jihad is the wave of the future, we're going to see dozens of individual actors carry out small attacks to avenge bin Laden over the next few days. If leaderless jihad is a lot of hot air, the lone-wolves will stay home and try to score "rep points" on the forums with their clever posts about bin Laden's death.

Let me be perfectly honest here and say I don't know which way this will go. Leaderless jihad has largely underwhelmed over the last few years. The attacks have been truly small and most (but not all) have lacked serious impact. They also haven't been truly leaderless as most (but not all) of the terrorists who have been classified as lone wolves had (or thought they had) contacts with formal terrorist networks including Al Qaeda Central.

We need to watch this situation closely because it's the real proof of concept. If we don't see a significantly large series of individual actors spontaneously rise to violence in response to this news, I'm inclined to think that "leaderless jihad" (like Louis Beam's earlier "leaderless resistance") will be a perennial underachiever and should be demoted in terms of national security priorities.

If the lone wolves do rise up en masse, we need to start having some new national conversations. Stay tuned.

J.M. Berger is the author of "Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go To War In The Name Of Islam," hitting bookstands in less than two weeks. Order today!

Labels: Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda-In-The-Arabian-Peninsula, Anwar-Aulaqi, Ayman-Al-Zawahiri, Osama-Bin-Laden

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