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News, analysis and primary source documents on terrorism, extremism and national security.


Friday, June 28, 2013
 

A Modest Test of Terrorism Forecasting with Google Trends

I was reading this piece on forecasting terrorist attacks, and I was reminded that it's been a while since I played Google Trends bingo.  

So here are several forecasts related to terrorist attacks and other things, courtesy of Google Trends, which extrapolates future Google searches based on past ones. 

This is arguably the purest kind of Big Data crowdsourcing forecast because it factors in all the things that invisibly make people search for something on Google. 

It should be taken with large grains of salt -- as should all claims of forecasting terrorist attacks and sundry events -- but let's get it on the record and see. 

Search: Bomb. Forecast: December 2013 

Search: Lone Wolf. Forecast: January 2014


Search: Terrorist, attack. Forecast: May 2014
 Search: Protest. Forecast: September 2013


Search: Protest, riot. Forecast: June 2014


Search: Nuclear accident. Forecast: April 2014


Search: Stock market crash. Forecast: November 2013

Search: Shooting. Forecast: August 2013 (it's worth noting that my previous efforts to forecast also returned August 2013 as a likely search peak)


Search: Massacre. Forecast: July 2013


Search: Terrorism. Forecast: May 2014




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ISIS: THE STATE
OF TERROR

ISIS: The State of Terror, by Jessica Stern and J.M. BergerJessica Stern and J.M. Berger co-author the forthcoming book, "ISIS: The State of Terror," from Ecco, an imprint of HarperCollins. The book, which will debut in early 2015, will examine the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, its potential fall, how it is transforming the nature of extremist movements, and how we should evaluate the threat it presents. Jessica Stern is a Harvard lecturer on terrorism and the author of the seminal text Terror in the Name of God: Why Religious Militants Kill. J.M. Berger is author of the definitive book on American jihadists, Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam, a frequent contributor to Foreign Policy, and editor of Intelwire.com.

Pre-order the book now | Pre-order Kindle version

JIHAD JOE

Jihad Joe by J.M. BergerJihad Joe: Americans Who Go To War In The Name Of Islam, the new book by INTELWIRE's J.M. Berger, is now available in both Kindle and hardcover editions. Order today!

Jihad Joe is the first comprehensive history of the American jihadist movement, from 1979 through the present. Click here to read more about the critical acclaim Jihad Joe has earned so far, including from the New York Times, Publisher's Weekly, Redstate.com and many more.

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